Our base case is for a relatively strong ANC election win in May and a mandate for President Cyril Ramaphosa to continue with his reform and anti-corruption drive. This will improve investor confidence and should see strong inflows into the South African (SA) equity market. Recent market performance has indicated support for this view. However, this is by no means a certainty and risks are elevated. In addition, Ramaphosa will need to show strong leadership and take meaningful actions in order to reinforce confidence. Different election outcomes could have vastly different equity market, growth and currency consequences. We are hence maintaining meaningful exposure to SA Inc. shares but retaining a diversified portfolio. Importantly, investors should be ready to react as the SA political drama unfolds, with a close eye on the balance of power in the provinces. SA has serious structural issues and the advances made in solving these are equally important. It should also be borne in mind that many of the factors impacting equity markets are global in nature and the SA political outcome is just one of the contributors. However, various segments of the SA market could perform very differently in the varying scenarios. At the end of this document we outline our expected outcomes for different election results.
